Build
an Eight-Piece 20th Century Gold Set(con't)
Now let's assume
the collector wants to keep his set and sell it 50 years from now. Let's
also assume that the average annual rate of return will remain approximately
the same for each graded set for the next 50 years. What will each set
be worth?
MS-60
set: (1.0543)50 = 14.0673
$3,550 x 14.0673 = $49,939
MS-63
set: (1.0693)50 = 28.508
$10,000 x 28.5088 = $285,088
One
can clearly see that the MS-63, set which compounds at a higher rate
gives the collector a higher value in nominal dollars 50 years from
now, everything else being equal.
The bottom line,
as I see it, is that collectors need to learn how to use the given arithmetic
to see what their annual rate of return has been for sets or diverse
coins and then to use the given arithmetic to see what a set of coins
could be worth in future years. Who knows, perhaps the coins your children
will inherit from you will make them financially well off.
If one keeps
the MS-63 type set for 75 years instead of the 50 years, this set could
be worth $1,522,190!
(1.0693)75 =
152.219
$10,000 x 152.219 = $1,522,190
The
data show that compounding is the "8th wonder of the world".
The mathematics
of compounding excited Warren Buffett in his earliest years. He would
memorize compounding annuity tables to help him calculate the merits
of his investments and also to keep his personal portfolio on a straight
track. As we have seen in the coin appreciation calculations, time has
a tremendous effect on wealth accumulation. The longer that assets can
compound, the larger their value will be. Adding a few extra percentage
points per year can have unfathomable consequences on wealth building.
We see this with the two gold type sets in this article that have compounded
at 5.43 percent and 6.93 percent per year.
Let me give
another example that proves this point. The American Indians sold Manhattan
for $24 in 1626. If they wanted to buy it back today, it would cost them
more than $3.28 trillion. The $3.28 trillion is what $24 is worth in
379 years at 7 percent compounded annually.
However, getting
back to coins, numismatic appreciation depends on popularity and even
the rarest coin eventually reaches a maximum value in constant dollars,
i.e., adjusted for inflation. In reality, the future coin values determined
by the given math, at best, are only approximations. No one knows for
sure what the future will bring. Nevertheless, one needs the mathematical
tools and know-how to see what the potential value of an asset extended
out X number of years could be, at a certain average annual rate
of return. Now you can do it, too.
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